Everyone is excited for the first ever college football playoff. While there will definitely be some fireworks, surprises and some grumblings there is another interesting battle going on and that is for the “non-power five” automatic bid to Fiesta Bowl.
This is a big deal for these “non-power five” teams, because it includes a sizable paycheck and a chance to play a “power five” team proving that you can compete and even beat the big boys. The race for that coveted bowl slot is, realistically, down to three teams. Marshall (9-0), Colorado State (8-1) and Boise State (7-2).
Marshall is still unbeaten and will most likely finish the season unbeaten, but their resume is not very strong. Their best win, up to this point, is a home victory over Middle Tennessee. They will most likely play Louisiana Tech for the Conference USA crown and if they win that game it will be their best victory of the season. Marshall did not challenge themselves out of conference early in the season. Their non-conference schedule featured three MAC schools and FCS Rhode Island. They did not schedule a “power-five” team and, therefore, should not be considered for the playoff bowl. In years past when the BCS system was still in play if a “non-power five” team like Boise State or TCU wanted to be considered for the National Championship they would have to dominate their conference slate, which Marshall has, but they would also have to challenge themselves out of conference. Boise played games versus Virginia Tech, Georgia and Oregon to name a few. Marshall, this year, did not do that.
Colorado State is an intriguing one-loss team that has a very good case and—some would argue—a much better case than unbeaten Marshall. Colorado State’s only loss this year was at Boise State where the Broncos record on the blue turf is 85-4 since 2000. The Rams challenged themselves out of conference by playing two “power-five” teams. They played their annual rivalry game versus Colorado in Denver and a road game versus Boston College. Colorado State passed both those tests. They handled Colorado and beat an east coast, bowl-eligible Boston College team in their house. Working against Colorado State is the fact that they may not even play for the Mountain West crown. Due to their loss to Boise State they still need the Broncos to lose once more or the Rams will not even sniff the Mountain West Championship game. If Colorado State is 11-1, but not conference champions I have a hard time, just like everyone would with the four-team playoff, of rewarding a team for not winning their conference.
Now we move to Boise State who has two losses. Boise State challenged themselves out of conference by playing a game in Atlanta versus Ole Miss. They played on the road versus UConn and played BYU. Weighing Boise down though is the two losses. One very respectable to Ole Miss and the other was at Air Force when the Broncos turned it over seven times and the Falcons are 7-2. The Broncos, as stated before, won the head to head versus Colorado State and the Broncos still control their own destiny in terms of playing for the Mountain West crown.
So in review the Fiesta Bowl slot for a “non-power five” team comes down to three programs. Marshall who will most likely go unbeaten be Conference USA champions but did not challenge themselves in the non-conference. Colorado State who will probably end up 11-1 and not play for the Mountain West crown but did challenge themselves out of conference by playing two “power five” teams. And Boise State who looks to finish 11-2, will most likely win the Mountain West and who also challenged themselves out of conference.
