Though the 2020 presidential election is still almost two years away, multiple politicians across the political spectrum have already announced their candidacy in the wake of Trump’s falling approval ratings post-government shutdown.
The list of Democratic candidates currently includes 10 viable contenders, among them senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker and mayors Julian Castro and Pete Buttigieg. Analysts expect many other politicians, such as Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, to make a run. Even former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton hasn’t taken the option of another campaign off the table.
“There’s a perception among the Democrats that Donald Trump is particularly weak this election cycle,” said Professor Jim King, a member of the political science department at the University of Wyoming. “Campaigns have to start early, there’s fundraising and a lot of other considerations to consider.”
The Democratic candidates currently present a wide array for possible platforms. Harris and Warren support “Medicare for All,” a universal health care program conceived by another likely candidate, Senator Bernie Sanders. However, some centrist candidates, such as Senator Amy Klobuchar and prospective candidate Michael Bloomberg, feel that Medicare for All will be too expensive.
In addition, the “Green New Deal,” a stimulus program designed to fight climate change and proposed by House Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other congresspeople, divides the Democratic caucus. While more liberal candidates support the program, other candidates have voiced concerns about the program being too idealistic, with some more moderate Democrats openly mocking the policy.
Though there have been some rumors of Republicans challenging Donald Trump in the primaries, no one from the GOP has announced their candidacy yet. It seems that Republicans don’t perceive Trump to be as weak as the Democrats do.
“Trump’s approval rating in November of last year was about the same as Ronald Reagan’s at the same point in his presidency,” said King. “At this point, approval ratings give us a little bit of a metric, but there is very little correlation.”
Particular attention has been given this election cycle to so-called “billionaire candidates” like former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who plans to run as an independent. These candidates aim to use their vast fortunes to skip the fundraising that hampers many other political competitors, though problems could plague Schultz’s campaign.
In a recent interview with MSNBC, Schultz couldn’t say how much an average box of cereal cost. His political rallies are often met with protesters, and he’s struggled to properly use social media to get his message out.
“The one bet I would make right now is that Howard Schultz will not be president,” King said. “Our political system is just not set up in a way that is conducive to independents.”
King feels that Schultz’s best strategy is to work on name recognition, then attach himself to another candidate that best supports his ideals.
Though media about the 2020 election already seems inescapable, King thinks that it’s best to ignore all the talking heads.
“I wouldn’t make any bets right now on the Democratic candidates,” said King. “A lot is going to change between now and the election.”
