CJ Day
Staff Writer
“It’s certainly a testament to the perceived weakness of Trump, that so many candidates have decided to run,” said Political Science Professor Jim King. “It’s the most crowded field I’ve ever seen.”
Though it might seem hard to believe, there is less than a year until the 2020 presidential election. With only two months until the Iowa caucus, the Democratic field has become more competitive than ever before.
There are more than 15 politicians and public figures who have declared their candidacy, but only four or five of the candidates seem to have any measurable amount of public support. According to the most recent polling data from FiveThirtyEight.com, only four candidates appeal to more than 5% of likely voters.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has the lead, with support ranging from 25% to 35%, while Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren tend to poll at about 15%. Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana hovers around 8%, with every other candidate struggling to break 3%.
Though the four top candidate’s polling numbers have held mostly steady for the last couple of months, King said there is still room for a shakeup. In the past, primary races have seemed cut and dry until a massive upset in Iowa. For example, Sanders trailed Hillary Clinton by about 8% before Iowa in 2016, but when the votes were tallied, Sanders came within two-tenths of a percentage point from taking the whole thing.
King said there is a good chance of the same thing happening in 2020. Still, King made it clear that electability in Iowa does not equate electability nation-wide.
“It isn’t representative of the nation,” said King. “It has less than one-tenth of the delegates that California has. It’s only important because it’s first.”
While Buttigieg has momentum in Iowa, he seems to have stalled out nationwide.
“In reality, his strength is that he’s thirty years younger than the rest of the field,” said King. “He’s new to the national stage, and so he doesn’t have the baggage that the other candidates have.”
Buttigieg campaign’s general strategy is to win over independent moderates, though some progressives have branded him a Republican in Democrats’ clothing. He does not support many policy initiatives supported by more progressive candidates, like universal healthcare or increased regulations on corporations. In general, Buttigieg is a more moderate candidate than many of the other candidates.
“If I had to pick one candidate of the four that might not make it to Iowa, it’s Sanders,” said King. “He missed his shot in 2016.”
King explains that while the GOP often takes the second-place finisher of the last primary and crowns them the front-runner, there is no such courtesy in the Democratic race. With the Democrats, a candidate has one shot.
“People who voted for him when he was 72, are now looking at voting for a 76-year-old,” said King. “His biggest challenges are his age and health.”
However, many signs point to Sanders’s momentum. He’s the total leader in individual donors, with more than twice the donors than any other candidate. And while Sanders may not have the success in the polls that other candidates have, his supporters say that Sanders tends to poll worse than he should.
“You look at 2016, the media was always saying he was way behind Hillary,” said Justin Reyes, a geology student who voted for Sanders in 2016. “It’s the same thing this year, people just can’t believe he’s doing so well.”
Reyes does not have the same enthusiasm for Warren.
“Warren wants what Bernie has,” said Reyes. “She doesn’t really believe in what she’s saying, she keeps saying she’s against big corporations but she won’t stop taking money from them.”
Warren occupies much the same spot in the race as Sanders, framing herself as a progressive against the many moderates in the field. However, Warren’s plans tend to be more detailed and rooted in reality than Sanders’, even if they are less ambitious. She’s also the only woman polling above 3%, which has attracted many to her cause.
Biden, the front-runner, also seems to be the Democratic establishment’s top choice going into Iowa. However, his support has steadily eroded as other candidates present themselves as alternatives. King said Biden aims to capture the same electorate as Buttigieg; namely, moderates who might vote Republican if a progresive candidate is elected.
“Biden has a wealth of experience, but he’s got age issues of his own,” said King. “He’s also at the center of the impeachment scandal, and as news comes out, his support might erode.”
The Iowa caucus will not be held until Feb., and the real campaign will start then. Until then, it is still anyone’s game. Candidates can dip and rise in the polls, but there is no telling who will emerge as the front-runner until the citizens of Iowa cast their vote.
