On December 27, 2024, astronomers detected a new asteroid named 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object (NEO) that has since drawn significant attention from the scientific community. Measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, the asteroid is large enough to cause considerable damage if it were to collide with Earth. While initial calculations suggest a low probability, around 2.3%, of impact on December 22, 2032, ongoing observations aim to refine its trajectory and reduce uncertainty, in order to conclude whether or not we should be truly worried about this object. Continued observation will be crucial in refining its trajectory and ruling out any potential danger.
The object has the potential to set off a roughly 8MT explosion, which would be equivalent to a bomb about 500x as powerful as the one that was dropped on Hiroshima. While this would not be a world ending event, anyone in the immediate vicinity of the impact would have a poor chance of survival, and the potential impact corridor covers populous areas in South America, Africa, and India. If this asteroid were to land on a city, say Lagos, the death count could be catastrophic.
However, it’s important to note that the likelihood of impact is still very low. As scientists gather more data, they aim to nail down the probability of a collision scenario. NASA and other space agencies are closely monitoring the asteroid’s path, and the James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe 2024 YR4 in March 2025 to better understand its size and trajectory. In the unlikely event that the asteroid poses a real threat, various strategies could be employed to prevent a collision. These include deflecting the asteroid using spacecraft or other means. International space agencies are already discussing possible plans to ensure Earth’s safety, and the United Nations has officially activated its planetary defense protocols.For now, there is no reason for panic, only increased vigilance. NASA and other space agencies remain committed to monitoring near-Earth objects, ensuring that any real threat is met with swift and effective action. If 2024 YR4 ultimately poses no risk, its study will still provide valuable insights into asteroid tracking and planetary defense, something that many nations have been slacking on. This asteroid potentially serves as a wake-up call for the international community about the importance of investment in space exploration, both for the continued survival of our species as well as its prosperity.
